ECP Valuation

Enterprise Value — Live Scenarios

Bear

—

Canonical $5.0–6.5M · 1.0× revenue, no catalysts

Base

—

Canonical $8.0–11.0M · 1.5× rev or 8–10× EBITDA

Bull / Strategic

—

Canonical $18.0–25M+ · 2.0× rev + catalysts

Regulatory Catalyst Toggles

280E Rescheduling

Schedule I→III. EO signed Dec 2025; DEA final rule pending. Biggest single lever.

Federal Hemp THC Ban

0.4mg/container cap, eff. Nov 12 2026. Kills unlicensed competition.

MI Low-THC Beverage Act

Draft S05256'25. Retail pathway + license moat. ECP pushing.

Catalyst-adjusted Bull EV

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Strategic base (2.0× TTM revenue) + active catalyst adds ($M, editable). Defaults = midpoints of canonical ranges.

Path to the $20M Floor

Catalyst-adjusted Bull EV vs $20M target

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$20M

Lever	Current	$20M target	Status
Revenue (TTM)		$8.5–10.0M
Gross margin (managerial)		22%+
Adj. EBITDA		$2.0M+
280E finalized	pending	yes	watch DEA

Equity Proceeds Bridge what you net

Scenario

Equity proceeds = EV − funded debt − debt-like items + cash − transaction fees. NWC shown for reference; buyers typically require a normalized NWC peg at close (true-up not modeled).

Balance Sheet Detail QB 2026-04-30

Revenue Quality, Growth & Distribution

TTM Revenue Growth YoY

Active Doors (90d)

Top-1 / Top-12 customer share

low concentration = positive

Co-pack revenue (TTM)

Lume / Buzzn billed

Total revenue by brand type (TTM, reconciled to QB total income)

Valuation read: partner royalty brands are the largest slice — these carry contract / change-of-control risk (the reason the contract-cleanup workstream matters). House brands are owned-IP crown jewels. Co-pack (Lume / Buzzn — same relationship) is sticky recurring revenue. "Other" = shipping, discounts, and non-brand / timing differences between LeafLink and the QB books.

Financial Inputs & EBITDA Bridge edit to model · saved locally

Input	Value
TTM Revenue
Prior FY Revenue
Gross Margin % (managerial)
Adjusted EBITDA
Cash & bank
Funded debt
Debt-like items
Net working capital
Transaction fees %

Managerial GM excludes depreciation booked in COGS (GAAP GM = %). No funded debt confirmed (no interest expense in P&L).

Adjusted EBITDA bridge reconciles to canonical $1.02M

Net income (TTM)	$473,331
+ Depreciation (in COGS)	+$405,562
+ Income tax	+$113,381
+ Interest	$0 (no debt)
= EBITDA	$992,274 · 14.4%
+ Non-recurring add-backs	+$75,262
= Adjusted EBITDA	$1,067,536 · 15.5%

Sum-of-Parts — Asset & Brand Floor

Bottom-up asset/brand floor, independent of the multiple-based scenarios. Sourced from the canonical Exit Strategy analysis. Manufacturing platform shown at net book value (low) to replacement cost (high).

Enterprise Value Trend → $20M

Each point is a month-end snapshot from valuation_snapshots. The line extends automatically as the monthly recompute job runs. Dashed gold line = $20M floor.

Assumptions editable · saved locally

Multiple / assumption	Value	Used for
Bear revenue multiple		Bear EV
Base revenue multiple		Base EV (vs EBITDA cross-check)
Bull revenue multiple		Bull strategic base
EBITDA multiple — low		Base low cross-check
EBITDA multiple — high		Base high cross-check

Methodology & Sources

Live inputs (revenue, GM, EBITDA, balance sheet, mix, concentration, doors) are recomputed monthly from QB managerial P&L (Supabase pnl), QB balance sheet, and Leaflink ETL — reconciled to the board deck within 2%. Assumptions (multiples, catalyst values, sum-of-parts) are editable and seeded from the canonical ECP Exit Strategy (Mar 31 2026). Revenue/EBITDA multiple approaches are blended with a bottom-up sum-of-parts floor. This is a planning model, not a formal valuation or fairness opinion.

ECP Valuation Dashboard